One of the main focuses of International Relations is the study of war, a sad and common occurrence in human societies. This means that as students of IR, we are also interested in how wars end, and how peace is achieved. One way that wars end is that one side simply defeats the other. But, wars often end in a negotiated settlement, meaning that the two sides begin to talk and find a way to end the conflict. This process often includes external actors who, being independent and neutral, are able to facilitate the negotiations. This is diplomacy, and it takes great effort. The external actor (the other state) must be both willing and able, which means it must have some national interest in peace, and it must have the ability, or the power, to do so.

Lack of Diplomacy

The mass media have been reporting on two major conflicts in 2024; Ukraine and Gaza, and in both of these, there seems to be no major diplomatic efforts to facilitate a negotiated settlement. This means that there are no external actors who are both willing and able to do this. Of course, this is a sad fact, but as previously said, it is very difficult to do this, and takes great effort. However, there is another serious conflict, in which an external actor has tried to use diplomacy to achieve peace and has had some (very minor) success.

Conflict in Myanmar

In 2021, Myanmar’s democratic transition went into reverse. The military (Tatmadaw) staged a coup and took back direct control of the government. Government leaders and many members of parliament were arrested. The people of Myanmar took to the streets in protest, and the military responded with violence. As if this wasn’t bad enough, in October 2023, an alliance of non-state armed groups (The Three Brotherhood Alliance) launched coordinated attacks, called 'Operation 1027’, on the Tatmadaw across the country. The ongoing Myanmar civil war had erupted yet again, and the new military government seemed to be in a dangerous position. Some commentators have even begun to talk about an impending defeat for the Tatmadaw.

Diplomacy at Work

In early January 2024, it was announced that the opposing forces, The Three Brotherhood Alliance and the Tatmadaw, had agreed to a ceasefire. Importantly, this agreement was the second attempt by China to encourage peace talks between the two sides. As evidence of their power and influence, China was able to coerce the two sides to sit down, talk and agree to a ceasefire. On both occasions however, the agreement was broken, and fighting resumed. This is a prime example of diplomacy at work- another state has both the will and the ability to have influence over the domestic affairs of another state. While this power and influence is real and tangible, it is also limited. So, it is clear that China has some ability to pursue diplomacy in Myanmar. But, why would China be willing to do this? What is the Chinese national interest that drives diplomatic efforts? The most important is probably stability along their long shared border. However, there are also economic reasons stemming from trade with, and investments in, Myanmar.
In July 2024, two of the members of The Three Brotherhood Alliance announced that they had agreed to extend the most recent ceasefire. Importantly, one of the members had not agreed to do so, and this shows the difficulty of such diplomacy. But, one of the leaders said, “China put a lot of pressure on us to have a ceasefire immediately. Therefore, we have to do it as we can’t avoid it”.